Executive Summary
Leander shifted toward buyer-leaning conditions in September. Closings declined 16.2%, active inventory increased 3.7%, and estimated months of inventory rose from 5.10 to 6.32.
The closed median price remained relatively stable at $462,595, up 0.6%. However, the closed average price decreased 3.4%, active asking prices moved lower, and average seller-paid buyer closing costs increased 21.3%.
Combined Pending and Under Contract inventory declined 3.7%, suggesting a slightly smaller transaction pipeline entering the next reporting period.
Listing Activity
| Market Status | September 2026 | August 2026 | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed | 98 | 117 | 16.2% |
| Expired | 41 | 23 | 78.3% |
| Withdrawn | 50 | 60 | 16.7% |
| Active | 619 | 597 | 3.7% |
| Pending | 81 | 78 | 3.8% |
| Under Contract | 49 | 57 | 14.0% |
Listing Activity by Category
September 2026 distribution of active listings, closings and pipeline
Listing Counts — September vs. August
Month-over-month change by market status
Combined Pending and Under Contract inventory decreased from 135 to 130 homes. The increase in Pending listings did not fully offset the decline in Under Contract listings.
Expired listings increased by 18 records. This warrants attention alongside slower closing activity, although the data does not establish why those listings expired.
Active Inventory Opportunities
* Uses the specified rule: Active listings with HOA Requirement other than “Mandatory.” September includes 92 blank entries and 15 Voluntary entries. These records do not establish that the properties have no HOA.
** Uses the specified cutoff of list price below $301,000. Strictly below $300,000, the counts are 29 in August and 39 in September.
Closed Prices and Seller Concessions
| Pricing Metric | September 2026 | August 2026 | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed Median Price | $462,595 | $460,000 | 0.6% |
| Closed Average Price | $544,177 | $563,588 | 3.4% |
| Avg Price Per Closed Sq Ft | $206.51 | $200 | 3.3% |
| Avg Seller Paid Closing Costs for Buyer | $5,280 | $4,352 | 21.3% |
| Closed Price to List Price %+0.25 percentage points | 97.28% | 97.03% | 0.3% |
The price measures moved in different directions. September’s average closed home was approximately 2,596 square feet, compared with 2,738 square feet in August — a 5.2% decrease.
Smaller average home size helps explain why the average sale price declined while the average price per square foot increased. These changes do not establish appreciation or depreciation of the same properties.
Seller-paid buyer closing costs increased by approximately $928 per closing among records reporting a value. Positive contributions appeared on 47 September closings, compared with 59 in August.
Median vs. Average Pricing
Across closed, pending and active single-family homes — September 2026
Active and Pending Pricing
| Pricing Metric | September 2026 | August 2026 | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Median Price | $525,000 | $547,190 | 4.1% |
| Active Average Price | $665,942 | $685,724 | 2.9% |
| Pending Median Price | $483,990 | $500,074 | 3.2% |
| Pending Average Price | $641,033 | $625,465 | 2.5% |
Active inventory expanded while its median and average asking prices declined, suggesting a lower-priced inventory mix and continued competition among sellers.
The pending median fell while the pending average increased. This indicates a change in the price distribution of homes under contract, rather than a uniform pricing trend.
These comparisons measure each export’s inventory composition, not price reductions on the same individual homes.
Pricing — September vs. August
Month-over-month pricing movement
The 3 Fastest Moving Subdivisions
Ranked by average DOM among September closed listings, using subdivision names exactly as exported.
Hazlewood Sub Ph 3 and Lakeline Ranch Ph 05 tie at 2 days.
Hilltop Ranch’s three closed records each report zero DOM and zero CDOM. This describes the MLS-recorded exposure and does not establish that the homes had no prior marketing.
The other two results each represent one closing, so they should not be treated as typical subdivision selling speeds.
Days on Market
| Market-Time Metric | September 2026 | August 2026 | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed Avg Days on Market | 68.4 | 67.4 | 1.5% |
| Active Avg Days on Market | 93 | 99.5 | 6.5% |
Closed selling time remained relatively steady at approximately 68 days.
Active listings averaged 93 days on market, indicating substantial exposure time for available inventory. The lower active average does not establish faster sales because new listings and removals can change that measure.
Pending listings averaged 80.6 days on market, up from 70.3 days in August.
DOM averages exclude blanks. August coverage: Closed 117/117, Active 582/597 and Pending 77/78. September coverage: Closed 96/98, Active 594/619 and Pending 81/81.
Inventory, Absorption and Market Classification
5.1–7.0 months of inventory and a 15%–19% absorption rate define a buyer-leaning market.
Inventory and Absorption Trends
- Months of Inventory: 6.32 in September, up from 5.10 in August — a change of +1.21 months. (Active ÷ monthly Closed.)
- Absorption Rate: 15.83% in September, down from 19.60% in August — a change of −3.77 percentage points. (Monthly Closed ÷ Active × 100.)
Inventory increased while the closing pace slowed, giving buyers more choice relative to completed sales.
Market Classification
August: At the balanced/buyer-leaning cusp. Absorption of 19.60% falls between the stated bands, while inventory of 5.10 months reaches the buyer-leaning threshold.
September: Meets the buyer-leaning criteria of 15%–19% absorption and 5.1–7 months of inventory — softer conditions.
Additional Market Trends
Several September trends are particularly noteworthy.
Supply Up, Sales Down
Active inventory rose by 22 listings to 619 while closings fell 16.2% to 98.
Slightly Smaller Pipeline
Combined Pending and Under Contract inventory declined from 135 to 130 homes (−3.7%).
Expired Listings Jump
Expired listings rose from 23 to 41 (+78.3%), alongside slower closing activity.
Stable Median, Lower Average
The closed median held at $462,595 (+0.6%) while the closed average fell 3.4%, reflecting smaller homes sold.
Asking Prices Softening
Active median fell 4.1% and active average fell 2.9%, suggesting a lower-priced inventory mix.
Concessions Rising
Average seller-paid buyer closing costs rose 21.3% to $5,280.
Entry-Level Expansion
Homes listed below $301,000 increased from 30 to 40 (+33.3%).
Negotiation Room Persists
Closed homes sold at approximately 97.28% of list price on average.
Forecasting Prediction | October 2026
The most defensible prediction is continued buyer-leaning conditions with ongoing pressure for competitive pricing and concessions.
Outlook by Factor
- Closing volume: The 3.7% decline in combined Pending and Under Contract inventory suggests limited support for a substantial near-term rebound.
- Inventory: With 619 active listings and 6.32 estimated months of inventory, seller competition is likely to remain significant.
- Pricing: Lower active and pending median prices suggest continued sensitivity to asking prices. The mixed closed-price measures do not support a precise price forecast.
- Concessions: Higher average seller-paid buyer closing costs suggest concessions may remain an important part of negotiations.
- Selling time: Approximately 68 days for closed homes supports allowing sufficient marketing time.
Disclaimer: My predictions are bar any unforeseen events causing outliers — and it's possible my crystal ball may not be functioning properly.
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Lauren A. Petty, REALTOR®
Brokered by eXp Realty
I'm a professional analyst and project manager now a REALTOR®, serving the information without sales-talk. That's exactly how I support buyers and sellers: strategy and calm so you can make clear decisions.
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